Understanding the future of vehicle fleet composition in Western Australia.
What is WAVFM and what can it do?
The Western Australian Vehicle Fleet Model (WAVFM) is a new forecasting tool developed by DTMI to better understand the composition of WA’s vehicle fleet and how it might change over time.
The model forecasts trends in passenger, commercial and heavy vehicle fleets through to 2051, providing valuable insights to support transport planning and policy, infrastructure investment, and emissions calculations.
What does the model consider?
The model accounts for many factors that influence vehicle ownership and purchasing decisions, including:
- Population growth
- Employment trends
- Household characteristics such as household size and income
- Vehicle costs (capital and operating costs)
- Fuel costs (based on usage) and fuel types
- Vehicle technologies
- Number and sizes of vehicles
- Consumer preferences.
These factors can be used to estimate how vehicle ownership patterns may change and adoption rates for different sized vehicles and fuel type choices.
How does WAVFM support improved planning and policy?
WAVFM can be used to test ‘what-if’ scenarios and understand how different assumptions influence future vehicle ownership and technology adoption. Examples include:
- Changes in longer-term fuel prices
- Alternative Federal Government policies
- Increasing electric vehicle availability and adoption preferences
- Different population growth scenarios
- New vehicle technology developments such as hydrogen and fuel cell electric vehicles.
This capability helps government make evidence-based decisions and better prepare for future transport needs.
Supporting WA's climate policy
WAVFM provides an important evidence base and tool for understanding how changes in the vehicle fleet may contribute to reducing transport emissions over time.
The model can estimate future adoption of low and zero-emission vehicles and be paired with other models and tools, such as DTMI’s new Tour-Based Strategic Transport Evaluation Model (TB-STEM), that forecast how much passenger and freight transport activity occurs.
Looking ahead
DTMI designed WAVFM to evolve as new data, technologies and travel patterns emerge. Regular updates will make sure the model remains relevant and continues to provide valuable insights that help the State Government build a more efficient, accessible and sustainable transport system for WA into the future.